How much energy will we need in the future compared to now?
Compare current primary energy consumption with possible scenarios in mind for 2040, according to the International Energy Agency.
Current scenario
32%
Oil
22%
Natural gas
27%
Coal
10%
Biomass
2%
Renewables
5%
Nuclear
2%
Hydroelectric
2016
13.750 Mtep
XX%
texto
Reference scenario (towards where we are headed)
28%
Oil
25%
Natural gas
22%
Coal
10%
Biomass
6%
Renewables
6%
Nuclear
3%
Hidroelectric
2040
17.584 Mtep
XX%
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Sustainability scenario (challenge)
23%
Oil
25%
Natural gas
13%
Coal
11%
Biomass
14%
Renewables
10%
Nuclear
4%
Hydroelectric
2040
14.084 Mtep
XX%
texto
The three IEA scenarios
Current scenario: assumes no changes in policies approved and applied until mid-2017, without including any new policies.
Reference scenario: assumes that policies, plans, and commitments announced by mid-2017 will be carried out, even if they have not been formally approved. It takes into consideration the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement in this regard (in particular the fulfillment of the commitments signed in Paris to reduce emissions between 2020 and 2030, the NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions], as well as the announcements made until mid-2017 that anticipate the tougher stance, for example in China, or the looser stance, for example in the US, regarding these commitments).
Sustainability scenario, the challenge: assumes that the necessary policies to achieve sustainability are applied to three areas: 1) universal access to modern energy in 2030 (electricity, gas for domestic use, etc.); 2) limiting greenhouse gas emissions from energy to fulfill the Paris Agreement's objectives (reaching their peak as soon as possible and subsequently reducing them); and 3) reducing polluting gas emissions linked to energy (pollution), resulting in improved air quality (reducing premature deaths caused by local pollution).